Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 656
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 656 · SMF → LAX
departs 9:16 PM PT · arrives 10:48 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±9 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 6.33333 mi Precip 0.30 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.