Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 657
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 657 · SMF → SAN
departs 6:21 PM PT · arrives 8:02 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±4 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.64 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.