WN 681 · BNA → PHX

took off 5:23 AM CT · landed 8:02 AM MT (scheduled 5:06 AM CT → 7:45 AM MT)

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to PHX?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.7 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ 0.6 in of rain forecast at BNA that day

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from BNA are usually not late

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility5.33333 mi Precip0.60 in

PHX (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.65 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 681 · BNA → PHX

Odds over time

How late did it get to PHX?