Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 709
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 709 · BNA → SAN
departs 10:07 PM CT · arrives 12:27 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 57%
Sat 10/31 39%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 35%
Tue 11/3 29%
Wed 11/4 28%
Thu 11/5 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.73 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.44 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.