Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 770
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 770 · SNA → SMF
departs 2:11 PM PT · arrives 3:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1
Tue 11/3 32%
Wed 11/4 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±5 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from SNA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
This flight has been late 14% of the time recently
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.30 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.