Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 804
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 804 · DAL → AUS
departs 6:01 PM CT · arrives 7:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
56%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 55% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from DAL are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at DAL that day
↓
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.