Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 819
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 819 · BOS → STL
departs 6:43 PM ET · arrives 8:36 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 39%
Tue 11/3 35%
Wed 11/4 40%
Thu 11/5 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed – in 24h
–
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
6pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.7 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.