Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 854
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 854 · SAN → SJC
departs 3:52 PM PT · arrives 5:27 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 1,400 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at SAN that day
↑
3pm departures from SAN are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.56 in
SJC (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.