Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 855
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 855 · ONT → SMF
departs 7:12 PM PT · arrives 8:44 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 30%
Thu 11/5 38%
Fri 11/6 43%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave ONT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SMF is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ONT (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.28 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.