Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 862
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 862 · JAX → STL
departs 7:16 PM ET · arrives 8:33 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±4 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
JAX usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.23 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 333 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.