Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 866
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 866 · MCO → PVD
departs 9:51 PM ET · arrives 12:45 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
64%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Arrive at PVD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to PVD?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
9pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PVD
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.46 in
PVD (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.