Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 869
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 869 · BUR → LAS
departs 2:11 PM PT · arrives 3:24 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 83%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 34%
Thu 11/5 44%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
68%
chance · ±10 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
68%
Leave 15+ late
59%
Arrive 1h+ late
28%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
68%
Yes 68%
No 32%
Leave BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
59%
Yes 59%
No 41%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
Weather at each end
BUR (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.16 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.