Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 874
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 874 · BUR → LAS
departs 4:06 PM PT · arrives 5:19 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 27%
Thu 11/5 44%
Fri 11/6 55%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
66%
chance · ±5 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
66%
Leave 15+ late
61%
Arrive 1h+ late
27%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
66%
Yes 66%
No 34%
Leave BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
61%
Yes 61%
No 39%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
33%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Gusts to 26 kt forecast at LAS that day
Weather at each end
BUR (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.18 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.