Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 933
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 933 · BUR → SMF
departs 3:47 PM PT · arrives 5:15 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 29%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 25%
Thu 11/5 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
BUR is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
BUR (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 5.66667 mi Precip 0.21 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.