AA 1349 · JFK → MBJ

took off 8:19 AM ET · expected to land 11:46 AM EST (scheduled 8:12 AM ET → 12:22 PM EST)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at MBJ more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MBJ?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at MBJ that day

↑ 8am departures from JFK are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MBJ (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1349 · JFK → MBJ

Odds over time

How late will it get to MBJ?