Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1387 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 2

AA 1387 · ORD → DEN

departs 11:07 PM CT · arrives 12:47 AM MT

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±11 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 45 kt, cloud base down to 1,400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at DEN that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ DEN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.01 in

DEN (destination) Gusts45 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1387 · ORD → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?