AA 1505 · DFW → SJD

took off 11:28 AM CT · landed 1:11 PM MST (scheduled 11:00 AM CT → 12:57 PM MST)

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at SJD more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SJD?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 11am departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJD

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts32 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility4.16667 mi Precip0.17 in

SJD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1505 · DFW → SJD

Odds over time

How late did it get to SJD?