AA 1734 · IND → PHX

took off 6:44 AM ET · expected to land 8:04 AM MT (scheduled 6:30 AM ET → 8:37 AM MT)

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from IND are usually not late

Weather at each end

IND (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1734 · IND → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?