AA 1853 · DFW → TPA

took off 10:25 AM CT · landed 1:29 PM ET (scheduled 9:33 AM CT → 1:15 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to TPA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 767 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at TPA that day

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts32 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.35 in

TPA (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.30 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1853 · DFW → TPA

Odds over time

How late did it get to TPA?