tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 186 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

AA 186 · DFW → PHX

departs 8:12 PM CT · arrives 9:52 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 68h before departure
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
56% chance · ±11 pts – · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 6.9d Now 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to PHX?

  1. On time or early
    41%
  2. 15–30 min late
    10%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    16%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    17%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    9%
  6. Cancelled
    7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.