AA 2120 · DFW → SFO

took off 7:09 AM CT · expected to land 8:41 AM PT (scheduled 7:03 AM CT → 9:04 AM PT)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts33 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.17 in

SFO (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2120 · DFW → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?