AA 2245 · ORD → SMF

took off 10:15 AM CT · landed 12:16 PM PT (scheduled 10:03 AM CT → 12:49 PM PT)

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SMF?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2245 · ORD → SMF

Odds over time

How late did it get to SMF?