AA 2354 · TPA → PHL

took off 11:24 AM ET · landed 1:33 PM ET (scheduled 10:38 AM ET → 1:21 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to PHL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at TPA that day

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.30 in

PHL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2354 · TPA → PHL

Odds over time

How late did it get to PHL?