Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 258 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 2

AA 258 · PHL → LIS

departs 10:14 PM ET · arrives 10:26 AM WET

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at LIS more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LIS?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 10pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LIS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 258 · PHL → LIS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIS?