Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2692 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 2

AA 2692 · PHL → RDU

departs 10:19 PM ET · arrives 11:52 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 69h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late

↑ 10pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2692 · PHL → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?