AA 2722 · PHL → SAN

took off 8:46 AM ET · expected to land 10:46 AM PT (scheduled 8:31 AM ET → 11:38 AM PT)

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAN?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2722 · PHL → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?