Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2785 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 2

AA 2785 · LAX → LAS

departs 8:43 PM PT · arrives 10:05 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±12 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2785 · LAX → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?