Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2942 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 2

AA 2942 · DFW → PHX

departs 9:25 PM CT · arrives 11:03 PM MT

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
28%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
11%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 33 kt forecast at DFW that day

↑ 9pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts33 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.15 in

PHX (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling7,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.20 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2942 · DFW → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?