AA 3028 · ORD → RDU

took off 12:49 PM CT · landed 3:18 PM ET (scheduled 11:52 AM CT → 2:59 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to RDU?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 11am departures from ORD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3028 · ORD → RDU

Odds over time

How late did it get to RDU?