Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3069 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 2

AA 3069 · ORD → STL

departs 10:57 PM CT · arrives 12:22 AM CT

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at ORD that day

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.01 in

STL (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3069 · ORD → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?