AA 3229 · ORD → AUS

took off 8:51 AM CT · landed 11:04 AM CT (scheduled 8:43 AM CT → 11:46 AM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to AUS?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling833 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3229 · ORD → AUS

Odds over time

How late did it get to AUS?