AA 3250 · PHL → SRQ

took off 8:33 AM ET · landed 10:45 AM ET (scheduled 8:15 AM ET → 11:20 AM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SRQ?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at SRQ that day

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SRQ (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.31 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3250 · PHL → SRQ

Odds over time

How late did it get to SRQ?