AA 802 · RDU → DFW

departs 6:55 AM ET · arrives 9:06 AM CT

Your aircraft is N334SM (B38M), coming in as AA 2513 from DFW: landed 9:09 PM ET.

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

66% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ RDU is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts33 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.17 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 802 · RDU → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?