AS 1187 · KOA → HNL

departs 8:43 PM HT · arrives 9:42 PM HT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into HNL at that hour are often late

↓ 8pm departures from KOA are usually not late

↓ Gusts to 33 kt forecast at HNL that day

Weather at each end

KOA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility8.66667 mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts33 kt Ceiling4,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1187 · KOA → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?