AS 1226 · HNL → OGG

departs 9:00 PM HT · arrives 9:51 PM HT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ 9pm departures from HNL are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts33 kt Ceiling4,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OGG (destination) Gusts42 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1226 · HNL → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?