AS 1793 · SEA → LAX

departs 2:02 PM PT · arrives 4:35 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

59% chance · ±0 pts +33 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
47%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ 2pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1793 · SEA → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?