AS 201 · LAX → SFO

departs 2:18 PM PT · arrives 3:40 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±0 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
31%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 12% of the time recently

↑ 2pm departures from LAX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 201 · LAX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?