AS 301 · OGG → LAX

departs 2:47 PM HT · arrives 9:34 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ Gusts to 28 kt forecast at OGG that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.08 in

LAX (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 301 · OGG → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?