Schedule: FAA flight plans.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 421 DELAYED: NOW PLANNED TO TAKE OFF 7:03 PM MT (16 MIN LATER THAN FIRST FILED)

Monday, November 2 Today

AS 421 · DEN → SEA

departs 6:32 PM MT · arrives 8:17 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

59% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
32%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 43 kt, cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at DEN that day

↑ 6pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at SEA that day

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts41 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precip0.04 in

SEA (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 421 · DEN → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?