AS 457 · SJC → PDX

departs 5:55 PM PT · arrives 7:46 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into PDX at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from SJC are often late

↓ This flight has been late 7% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC

Weather at each end

SJC (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling8,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 457 · SJC → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?