AS 520 · SJC → SEA

departs 7:38 PM PT · arrives 9:44 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
36%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ SJC is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC

↓ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

SJC (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 520 · SJC → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?