AS 635 · SEA → GEG

departs 10:11 AM PT · arrives 11:16 AM PT

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at GEG more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to GEG?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.13 mi forecast at GEG that day

↑ 10am departures from SEA are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

GEG (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 635 · SEA → GEG

Odds over time

How late will it get to GEG?