Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1566
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2 Tomorrow
DL 1566 · PHX → DTW
departs 10:24 PM MT · arrives 4:05 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Mon 11/2
Tue 11/3 14%
Wed 11/4 15%
Thu 11/5 28%
Fri 11/6 28%
Sat 11/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 10 kt
Ceiling 5,800 ft
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip 0.07 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt
Ceiling 2,400 ft
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.