MQ 3340 · BNA → ORD

took off 10:59 AM CT · expected to land 12:17 PM CT (scheduled 10:34 AM CT → 12:23 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

LIVE

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.41 in

ORD (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3340 · BNA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?