MQ 3384 · FSM → DFW

departs 5:12 PM CT · arrives 6:21 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±0 pts +26 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
18%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
45%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Gusts to 33 kt forecast at DFW that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ FSM usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

FSM (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

DFW (destination) Gusts33 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.17 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3384 · FSM → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?