MQ 3388 · AMA → DFW

took off 1:25 PM CT · expected to land 2:10 PM CT (scheduled 12:52 PM CT → 2:09 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DFW?

LIVE

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
35%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 42 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at AMA that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Gusts to 33 kt forecast at DFW that day

↓ 12pm departures from AMA are usually not late

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AMA (origin) Gusts42 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.28 in

DFW (destination) Gusts33 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.17 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3388 · AMA → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?