MQ 3420 · OMA → ORD

departs 8:08 PM CT · arrives 9:48 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±0 pts +31 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
28%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 33 kt, cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at OMA that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 8pm departures from OMA are often late

↓ OMA usually runs smoothly

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

OMA (origin) Gusts33 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.46 in

ORD (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3420 · OMA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?