MQ 3457 · SDF → DFW

took off 10:57 AM ET · expected to land 12:03 PM CT (scheduled 10:58 AM ET → 12:29 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DFW?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at SDF that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SDF (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.13 in

DFW (destination) Gusts33 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.17 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3457 · SDF → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?