MQ 3484 · STL → ORD

departs 5:27 PM CT · arrives 6:46 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

53% chance · ±0 pts +23 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3484 · STL → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?