MQ 3498 · TUL → ORD

took off 11:05 AM CT · expected to land 12:37 PM CT (scheduled 10:49 AM CT → 12:51 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

LIVE

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ Gusts to 33 kt, 0.6 in of rain forecast at TUL that day

↓ TUL usually runs smoothly

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TUL (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.83 in

ORD (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3498 · TUL → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?